The Way To identify value within your bets? That's the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the very best Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to explain how bookmakers' percentages are calculated and just how they provide a guide to assessment of value within the odds on offer. He has asked me to look at soccer betting, where, because of the few possible outcomes (three choices - win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short in any event.

A perfectly "balanced book" where the odds offered exactly reflect the opportunity of each team winning or even the draw would produce an overall of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit by the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. In the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there does not appear to be much between them but whenever we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 - 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be "over round". The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% as well as the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.

Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds provided by anyone bookmaker as they'd in theory make sure to lose on the event, they may be "under round" . The losing percentage would be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this does not happen. Individual bookmakers do not offer odds on the possible outcomes that will give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is the fact that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers can vary to the extent you could find a combination where those for online sports gamble the three possible outcomes are under round. Consequently you may bet on all three possibilities - win, lose and draw - and provided you allocate your total stake in the correct proportion you can make a profit of the percentage by that you can bet at under round odds.

Identifying value

From the above data it's fairly obvious that the 4 - 1 offered by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the best price, there is no difference within the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the best odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the greatest value? Obviously the 20.00% provided by bookmaker 1 on the home win will be the lowest percentage so could be the best value, but this is too simplistic. There has to be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the opportunity of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you may compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. How you evaluate the chances of each outcome just isn't because of this article. It deserves more comprehensive treatment than can be given here where we are dealing with bookmakers' margins and value bets.

Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the aforementioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the most effective odds on the draw they were still under priced) and a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should be given to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.

Stake allocation

There may be occasions when it is crucial to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This might be the case where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there is a strong reason to include two of the 3 possible outcomes so it's essential to allocate the stake between them. Within the illustration below the odds have been exaggerated. It is extremely seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises though the illustration is a good one to show just how to use percentages.

It really is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the top odds. All you may need do is compare them. Identifying value is the one other matter. Because of this you need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the probability of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you may identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly - and maybe now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds provided by the various bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined use of percentages should form a major part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and leading to your betting profits.